"In Argentina we have not yet freed from the habit of handling public policy indifference to what happens in the world economy. Indifference is not a sign of strength or is evidence of independence, quite the contrary. Our attempts at economic development, at birth lack an assessment of the international situation, we end up leading to surprises whose costs (at points unemployment or inflation) are skirting the inhuman. In the 90 structured public policy as if the abundance of international capital to be eternal. Today the situation is similar: we assume that the generosity of raw material prices will be eternal. Hopefully it is, but history suggests that both capital and prices fluctuate violently and not just according to our will. "is what you think Vladimir Werning, Executive Director of JP Morgan.
Unlike previous crises, Argentina does not have the time or business fiscal deficits to be financed with debt placement and commercial loans from foreign markets.
But this time the fiscal dependence comes from taxes on exports, particularly to those of raw materials. If the crisis collapsed the value of such property, Argentina would have a major fiscal slump.
Werning La Nacion said: "The events of this week we offer two reprimands. First, the prices of raw materials showed greater sensitivity to banking crisis and U.S. recession: therefore, the average farm price is now "only" 5% above the year-end when a few weeks ago was around 25%. It is not the level (even higher) of these prices, but by the apparent weakness of its balance, which urges us to reflect. "He added:" The strike showed that the State agricultural exhausted its capacity to promote a differential tax burden between sectors productive. And the federal government is running its ability to centralize the management of tax resources. "
